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NEW YORK–The nation's retailers suffered miserably through November as a modestly positive start to the holiday shopping season wasn't strong enough to offset weak spending the rest of the month.

After posting two consecutive monthly sales gains after more than a year of declines, merchants collectively posted a surprise 0.3 percent decrease for November, compared with a year ago when business plummeted to historic lows as spooked shoppers clamped down after the financial meltdown. The sales decrease is an ominous sign for an economy in the early stages of a fragile recovery.

Now, the big worry is whether consumers won't go back to the stores until the final hours before Dec. 25 as they wait for even bigger discounts in a season that many analysts had hoped would generate sales that would be unchanged from a year ago.

According to sales results announced Thursday, most stores including department store chains Macy's Inc.,Children's Place Retail Stores Inc., teen merchant Abercrombie & Fitch Co. and discounter Target Corp. posted sales declines. Warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp. posted a sales gain, though it's smaller than expected. Another exception was Limited Brands Inc., which runs Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works. It reported a solid sales gain instead of the sales decrease that Wall Street projected.

The figures are based on sales at stores open at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailers' health because they exclude the effects of store expansions or closings.

The 0.3 percent drop, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, is far worse than the original 5 to 8 percent growth forecast, which was whittled down to 3 to 4 percent gain earlier this week. The weak results come on top of a 7.7 percent drop a year ago.

"This suggests that consumers are still under a significant amount of pressure from unemployment and job worries," Ken Perkins, president of retail research firm Retail Metrics.

After consumers showed some signs of life in September and October, merchants saw a sales lull throughout November until shoppers crowded stores and malls for the early morning specials for the day after Thanksgiving payday loan lenders.

According to reports, however, shoppers were picky about what they bought for themselves and others, focusing on discounted basics like microwaves, boots and bed sheets over the holiday weekend. The hot areas were electronics and online shopping, which is not reflected in most of Thursday's sales figures.

Economists say that depressed spending could persist for several years amid stubbornly high unemployment – now at 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years.

Amid a challenging economy, Costco fared well, posting a 6 percent increase; results were less than the 8.1 percent gain that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. However, half of that increase results from currency shifts and higher gas prices.

But discounter Target said that strong sales during Thanksgiving weekend were not enough to offset weak business the rest of the month, sending sales in stores open at least a year down 1.5 percent. The drop was bigger than the 0.5 percent drop analysts were expecting and were on top of the 10.4 percent decline in November 2008.

Discount retailer Fred's Inc. posted a 3.3 percent decline, a bigger drop than the 1.6 percent decrease analysts predicted. The retailer said its pharmacy department was strong in the month but discretionary spending by consumers remained weak.

Consumers "utilized layaways to a much greater extent than last year, deferring recognition of those sales until December," said CEO Bruce A. Efird.

Macy's sales in stores open at least a year fell 6.1 percent in November, a bigger than analysts expected.

Macy's said the month was hurt by a shift of a sales event and warm weather. Still, Macy's said it had strong traffic early on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when many Americans go shopping. Analysts had expected a 3.1 percent drop.

Abercrombie & Fitch's woes continued, with sales falling 17 percent, much worse than the 9.3 percent decline analysts predicted.

But Limited posted a 3 percent sales gain, surpassing estimates from analysts who had expected a 2.5 percent decline.

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Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann announced Wednesday that the city has closed a section of Kapiolani Park frequented by homeless people.

The area, a grass strip between Kalakaua Avenue and the sidewalk, will be closed for “ongoing maintenance and beautification work,” according to Hannemann.

It was unclear how long the city would cordon off the grassy border along the street, but the homeless population in Kapiolani Park has been a growing concern for the past several years. Over the past month, dozens of homeless have set up tents and belongings on the grass strip in an effort to get around the city’s closure of the park.

Currently, portions of the park on the mountain side of Kalakaua are closed from midnight to 5 a.m., while portions of the park on the ocean side of Kalakaua are closed from 2 a.m. to 5 a.m.

Overnight camping is also not permitted in the park, but that hasn’t stopped a determined core of homeless who set up tents and move only when prodded by police.

“We are committed to keeping Kapiolani Park clean and safe for everyone,” Hannemann said in a news release.

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County assessors will mail 2009 personal property forms to business owners this month.

Oregon law requires all business owners — even owners of home-based businesses — to file a personal property tax return with their county assessor every year.

Business owners must complete and return them to their assessors by March 1, 2010. Tax owed on personal property is shown on property tax statements and is due Nov. 15, 2010.

Completed returns must include a detailed list of all business-related personal property, along with equipment purchase and lease dates, and original costs.

Personal property may include office furniture, personal computers, easily moved machinery, and even off-road vehicles and display cases if they are used in the business. It also includes leased equipment such as copiers and power washers.

The county assessor calculates the tax due each year based on the business owner’s personal property return. The assessor may cancel the tax if total personal property is valued under $15,000.

If you’re a business owner, you must file a return each year even if:

• You didn’t receive a tax return from the county in which your property is located;
• The assessor cancelled your tax in prior years;
• You sold or closed your business during the year; or
• You sold or disposed of your personal property.

“If a business owner doesn’t file, penalties range from 5 percent to 50 percent of the taxes due, depending on when they file returns from previous years,” said Syndi Gates, a department tax analyst.

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Howard Weaver, former vice president for news at The McClatchy Co., has been acting as an adviser for an online news startup by eBay Inc. founder Pierre Omidyar.

Omidyar and Randy Ching, both former eBay executives, established Peer News Inc. in 2008 with the goal of producing original, in-depth reporting and analysis of local issues in Hawaii. The Honolulu-based news service is set to make its debut early next year.

“We’ve been talking to a lot of people in the industry about journalism and how we might be able to have an impact, listening and learning as much as we can,” Omidyar wrote on his Peer News blog. “One of the people who has been a huge help in particular as we began to envision our local news service is longtime industry insider Howard Weaver …”

Peer News has announced it is searching for an editor, and Weaver has said on his blog that he’ll be part of the team looking at candidates. Weaver is not a candidate himself.

Weaver wrote about the startup last week:

“I’m interested for a lot of reasons, but I’d sum it up this way: the new venture intends to demonstrate that a digitally native, technologically fluent Web organization can profitably serve targeted readers who want sophisticated journalism focused on local civic affairs.”

Weaver, who twice led his hometown paper, the Anchorage Daily News, to Pulitzer Prize gold medals, retired from McClatchy (NYSE: MNI) about a year ago. Reached at his home in Sacramento, Weaver said he’s keeping busy in his “next phase” of life. When he’s not advising and blogging, he’s consulting, sitting on a company board of directors, having fun and “trying to write fiction.”

e.Republic takes on ‘Governing’

E.Republic Inc., a Folsom publishing and research company that focuses on government technology news and events for the government and education markets, just made its first acquisition, expanding beyond information technology to government policy.

E.Republic will buy “Governing” magazine from the Times Publishing Co guaranteed approval payday loans. The deal is expected to close Nov. 30. Details were not disclosed.

E.Republic has about 150 employees and continues to grow, unlike many news organizations that have laid off workers during the recession, said Paul Harney, chief operating officer for e.Republic. He said it’s been a tough year for the company’s print publications, except for “Emergency Management.” But e.Republic’s Web sites are “robust” and sponsorships for the company’s 160 events are strong, Harney said.

“People still want to meet face to face and talk business,” he said.

E.Republic also is home to the 10-year-old Center for Digital Government, which provides market research on technology and trends in local and state government.

Harney said e.Republic will be adding staff from “Governing” but it’s unclear yet how many. “Governing” will remain in its Washington, D.C., offices under the leadership of publisher Fred Kuhn.

Harney said the 80,000-circulation publication has been around for 20 years and has a loyal audience.

Extra! Extra! N&R moving

The Sacramento News & Review is finally making its move out of midtown from a rented space at 1015 20th St. to a once-vacant and dilapidated building at 1124/1132 Del Paso Blvd.

The free alternative weekly newspaper’s 60-member staff is set to move Dec. 10.

The newspaper received about $2 million in grants and loans from the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency to finance the purchase and renovation of the building, and another $2 million from a Small Business Administration loan. The project has been in the works for several years, said Sacramento News & Review president and chief executive officer Jeff vonKaenel.

“We’re very exciting about moving over,” he said.

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The euro zone economy jumped out of recession in the third quarter, data showed on Friday, but with slightly less spring than expected after the area’s top three economies fell short of market forecasts.

Gross domestic product in the 16 countries using the euro rose 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter after five consecutive quarters of shrinking output, but was 4.1 percent lower year-on-year.

Economists polled by Reuters had on average forecast quarterly growth of 0.5 percent and a 3.9 percent annual decline.

Germany, France and Italy all reported a third-quarter increase in economic output, but the German 0.7 percent quarterly growth was below expectations of 0.8 percent, the French 0.3 percent increase only half of what was expected and the Italian 0 faxless payday loans.6 percent fell short of the 0.7 percent consensus.

The growth ends the deepest economic downturn in Europe since World War Two, brought on by a global financial crisis, but economists say recovery is likely to remain fragile.

The European Commission forecast on November 3 that fourth-quarter growth would slow to 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2009 and then to 0.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2010.

Growth is seen accelerating steadily from the third quarter of 2010 to reach 0.5 percent in the second quarter of 2011.

(Reporting by Jan Strupczewski, editing by Dale Hudson)

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Despite much hope that Americans are finally thawing out of their year-long self-imposed shopping freeze, store sales last month were good in pockets — but not great, as many analysts were hoping.

With this latest disappointment behind them, the concern now for merchants is when, or will, consumers get their shoppping bags out in earnest for the start of the 2009 holiday shopping period.

The holiday shopping frenzy unofficially kicks off in just a few weeks on Black Friday, or the day after Thanksgiving.

The fourth quarter, which includes the November-December gift-buying months, is typically the most critical annual sales period for sellers. Those two months can account for 50% or more of retailers’ sales and profits for the year.

"For well over a year, consumers have been in shellshock. They are now starting to come out of the bunker, but they still are wearing their body armor and shopping smartly," said Craig Johnson, president of retail consulting group Customer Growth Partners.

While consumers are still very price-focused, he said better-than-expected sales results from some high-end sellers shows more people are becoming comfortable spending a little bit more money again.

"This trend bodes well for the holiday season," said Johnson.

Big hope, some disappointment

As leading chain stores trotted out their October same-store sales Thursday, it was obvious that shoppers did remain very budget conscious, and are still favoring bargain and bulk sellers over clothing, department stores and other merchants.

Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are considered to be a key measure of a retailer’s performance.

While cooler October weather likely helped lift sales of winter clothing, many retailers posted better sales numbers because of significantly easier comparisons from a year ago, said sales tracker Thomson Reuters’ retail analyst Jharonne Martis.

Thomson Reuters, which tracks monthly same-store sales for 30 chains such as Target, Gap and J.C. Penney, said overall October sales for the group rose 1.8% compared to a 4.1% decline last October. Analysts had expected a gain for the group.

Last month’s shopping patterns favored Costco (COST, Fortune 500), the No. 1 warehouse club operator, which reported a 5% same-store sales gain, beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.7% increase.

However, Costco said the company’s sales also benefited from a weak dollar that boosted its overseas sales.

Discounter Target (TGT, Fortune 500) reported a 0.1% sales decline in October, better than a 4.8% drop a year ago. Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), the world’s largest retailer, which has benefited from the recession as consumers flock to its low prices, no longer reports monthly sales numbers.

However, the retailer is expected to provide details about its monthly sales when Wal-Mart reports its quarterly results next week.

Mid-price department store chain J.C. Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) reported a 4.5% drop in its same-store sales, which was slightly better than its own forecast for a 5% to 8% decrease in the month.

Gap Inc (GPS, Fortune 500)., the No. 1 clothing seller, reported a better-than-expected 4% sales gain in the month.

The high-end space saw a little bit of relief as well. Department store chain Nordstrom posted a 6.5% sales gain while sales at Saks (SKS) rose 0.7% for the month.

Elsewhere, merchants took a beating. Comparable sales at teen clothing chain Abercrombie & Fitch tumbled 15% in October. Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500), parent of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works chains logged a 4% decline in its sales versus analysts’ expectations for a 2.7% decline.

And department store operator Macy’s said its monthly sales slipped 0.8%.

On the fence

Some industry watchers, however, aren’t convinced yet of a full-bodied return to spending.

"Yes, there is clear momentum building in as we go into the holiday season," said Ken Perkins, president of sales tracking firm Retail Metrics. "Consumers are looking at better housing data and other economic reports, and are more comfortable making discretionary purchases when when unemployment is rising."

Still, Perkins said he’s skeptical about the strength of this recent uptick in spending.

"Retailers are up against their easiest year-over-year comparisons in a decade," he said. "And the comparisons get even easier over the holiday months."

"So this improvement in the monthly sales could be more of an optical illusion rather than a real improvement in spending," he said.

The National Retail Federation, the industry’s largest trade group expects 2009 holiday sales to decline 1%, improving from last year’s 3.4% decline.

Johnson expects holiday sales to grow about 2.4% while Perkins’ forecast is for a gain of between 1 to 2%. 

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Toyota Motor withdrew from Formula One on Wednesday, leaving Japan without a team in motorsport’s premier series.

Company president Akio Toyoda apologized for the team’s failure to record a single race victory since joining F1 in 2002 despite an estimated annual budget of around $300 million.

“This was a difficult but ultimately unavoidable decision,” he told a news conference in Tokyo. “Since last year with the worsening economic climate, we have been struggling with the question of whether to continue in F1.

“We are pulling out of Formula One completely. I offer my deepest apologies to Toyota’s many fans for not being able to achieve the results we had targeted.”

The decision by the world’s largest carmaker to pull out of Formula One comes as the auto industry starts to stabilize following a sales crunch in the wake of the financial crisis.

Cologne-based Toyota’s departure as a team and engine supplier deals another major blow to the sport after Japan’s number two carmaker Honda quit the series last December.

It leaves Japan without a team in F1 and continues the drain of Japanese companies from motorsport, which has seen Subaru and Suzuki withdraw from the world rallying championship.

LEGAL RAMIFICATIONS?

Bike maker Kawasaki also scrapped its MotoGP team in the grip of a severe market downturn.

Japanese tiremaker Bridgestone announced on Monday they would not renew their supply contract with Formula One after the 2010 season.

In July, Toyota’s Fuji International Speedway circuit surrendered hosting rights for the Japanese Grand Prix in 2010 and beyond to reduce costs amid the global economic downturn.

The pull-out of Japanese companies from F1 began with Honda-backed Super Aguri, who left for financial reasons early last year.

Toyota’s exit leaves just three manufacturers in Formula One — Ferrari (FIAT), Mercedes and Renault.

It also opens the door for BMW-Sauber’s new Swiss owners to take their place as the 13th team on the grid.

Toyota signed the concorde agreement earlier this year committing themselves to F1 until at least 2012, so a pullout could also have legal ramifications. 

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The yen rose to two-week highs while the U.S. dollar clung to gains on Monday as jittery investors cut back long positions in growth-linked currencies.

Traders said the drop in high-yielders like the Australian and New Zealand dollars is partly due to a correction after the rally in the past few months. Also, weighing on sentiment was news that CIT Group filed for bankruptcy.

The yen rose to as high as 89.17 per dollar in early Asian trade, from around 90.00 per dollar late on Friday when it gained over 1.5 percent. It was also firmer against the euro and the Aussie.

The euro inched up to $1.4715, from $1.4708 late on Friday when it lost over 0.8 percent. The Aussie, having lost nearly 2 percent on Friday, fell to a near one-month low of $0.8900 before recovering to $0.8970.

The U.S. dollar, which tends to gain when doubts about a global recovery emerge, traded above the 76 mark against a basket of currencies.

“It has been a pretty violent move and I think it is partly to do with positioning,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, currency strategist at Westpac. “The economic data has not been all that bad, so I think it should be a good opportunity to rebuild long positions in commodity currencies.”

Such long positions would have been very profitable over recent months and investors could be seeking to lock in gains for year-end and bonus season.

There was also upbeat news from Chinese manufacturing data at the weekend. China’s PMI rose to an 18-month high of 55.2 in October, indicating an acceleration in output and boding well for growth-linked currencies.

Latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators trimming long positions in the euro, the Aussie and the Kiwi bad credit payday loans. The value of the dollar’s net short position fell to $15.61 billion in the week ending October 27 from $18.65 billion net the prior week.

Traders said the mood was likely to remain cautious ahead of big event risks in the week ahead, which include central bank meetings in Australia, Europe and the U.S. and the all important U.S. non-farm payroll data on Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s rate setting committee, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, is expected to keep rates unchanged but there is speculation that it might change its language. That could see markets pricing in a rate hike in the United States sooner than expected.

“We see the Fed reiterating that ‘economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the fed funds rates for an extended period’,” said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital.

In the UK, the focus is on whether the Bank of England will increase its asset-purchase program to give a boost to its economy.

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point, with Governor Glenn Stevens and the monetary policy Statement later in the week to provide perspective.

The European Central Bank is also expected to hold rates steady, but it could provide some details on the schedule of open market operations for 2010.

(Editing by Wayne Cole)

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Major U.S. auto dealerships see only a grudging recovery in demand in 2011, a cautious outlook at odds with the consensus view that the battered industry could see a double-digit percentage rebound.

“We can feel that there is demand, but it is very cautious demand,” Asbury Automotive Group Chief Executive Officer Charles Oglesby said in an interview on Thursday.

Asbury, which ranks sixth in sales among U.S. dealerships, said it was basing its own planning decisions on the view that 2010 U.S. auto sales would be only flat with the 10.5 million vehicles projected for this year.

“While that may prove to be conservative, we feel that’s the prudent way to run the business,” Asbury Chief Financial Officer Craig Monaghan also told Reuters.

That view echoed the line taken earlier this week by Sonic Automotive. The No. 3 U.S. auto retailer also set its 2010 industry sales forecast at 10.5 million vehicles.

That is sharply lower than most industry forecasts, including those from major auto manufacturers.

CSM Worldwide has forecast industrywide U.S. sales of 11.8 million cars and light trucks for 2010, while J.D. Power is expecting 11.5 million.

Ford Motor Co, the only U.S. automaker to avoid bankruptcy and the most bullish in its projection for a recovery, has forecast sales of more than 12 million.

General Motors Co GM.UL has said it expects sales of about 11.5 million vehicles in the United States next year low fee payday advance.

The gap between the outlook of auto retailers and major manufacturers could be an issue for the industry as dealerships look to restock inventories that plunged to record lows this summer in the wake of the brief boom touched off by the U.S. government’s “Cash for Clunkers” sales incentive program.

Automakers are in the process of setting production plans for next year. If the industry fails to see the stronger growth expected, it could force automakers to discount more heavily, a step that those based in the United States have vowed to avoid.

Both GM and Chrysler went through government-funded bankruptcies this year to slash their operating costs and give them flexibility to run factories at lower volumes.

AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson said he believed the industry’s crisis this year and the changes made under pressure from U.S. officials had killed a failed “push” model in which automakers set output targets without regard to demand.

Jackson expects U.S. auto sales to recover to above 11 million vehicles in 2010, a level that he said was still deeply depressed by historical standards.

He said he was encouraged by “signs of life” in the market for financing near-prime and subprime borrowers and for underwriting vehicle leases. Last year’s credit crisis had shut down those riskier areas of the auto market. 

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French consumer confidence climbed in October for a third month as lower energy prices improved disposable income and government support spurred growth.

A gauge of household sentiment rose to minus 35 from minus 36 in September, Paris-based national statistics office Insee said today. Economists expected a reading of 35, a Bloomberg survey showed.

French consumers, helped by tax cuts, state incentives to buy cars and falling oil prices, have boosted the economy this year, lifting France out its deepest recession since World War II. Whether they’ll keep spending as energy prices recover and unemployment rises will be key to Europe’s second-largest economy in the months ahead.

“The behavior of consumers will be crucial” for 2010, said Gilles Moec, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. “Households will have to face the disappearance of the deflation windfall” and a deteriorating labor market.

Consumer prices dropped from last year’s levels in each of the past five months as the price of crude oil fell from the record highs hit in mid-2008.

That effect is diminishing just as joblessness is rising. Jobless claims rose by 21,600 in September to 2.57 million, the Labor and Finance ministries said yesterday.

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