Greece doesn’t need to restructure its debt for now and should only consider an extension of its international loans, said Herakles Polemarchakis, an economic adviser to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou.
“The debt has to be addressed,” Polemarchakis said in an interview at an event late yesterday at the London School of Economics. “I think that the rescheduling — or re-profiling as it is called sometimes — of the 100 billion euros given by the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, that’s something that could easily be done.”
Greek bond yields and the cost of insuring the country’s debt against default rose to records last week, rekindling speculation that a debt write-off or extension of repayment timelines will be the way out of the country’s fiscal quagmire. Possible options open to Greece include rescheduling the loans with the EU and IMF, lengthening the payback period of private debt, and a restructuring, Polemarchakis said.
“For the moment we don’t need to talk about anything except possibly for the easiest, which is the rescheduling of the EU and IMF loan,” said Polemarchakis, who is a professor at the University of Warwick in England.
A rescheduling would mean “no nominal loss, but you pay over a longer period,” he said. “By restructuring, I mean some loss of face value.”
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The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of similar-maturity German bunds widened to 1,221 basis points today from 1,199 points yesterday. That compares with a low this year of 754 basis points in February. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Greece’s refinancing needs of 58 billion euros ($86 billion) are covered this year by the loan package from the EU and IMF. Under the aid plan, Greece is supposed to regain market access next year, refinance at least three-quarters of its maturing medium- and long-term debt, and then fully fund debt rollovers beginning in mid-2013.
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said this week in Athens that easier terms for 110 billion euros of international loans would help avoid a debt restructuring. A restructuring, causing losses for bondholders would lock the country out of markets for a decade or more, he also said.
“For the very short run, we all know that the funding required by the banks of Greece are covered for the next two to three years by the memorandum,” Polemarchakis said in a speech at the LSE organized by the college’s Hellenic Observatory.
“As far as restructuring pressure is concerned, there is no pressure right now,” he said. “For the medium run, I agree that calculations should be done, but as long as the IMF and the EU support the banks, they pay our debts. I do not think this is an issue to be concerned about.”
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