Singapore GDP Slowed to 4.8% as Lee Expects
Singapore
The European Central Bank
Consumer confidence rose more than expected in December, hitting an eight-month high, as Americans grew more upbeat about the labor market and their financial situation.
The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer sentiment increased to 64.5 from a downwardly revised 55.2 in November.
Economists had expected a reading of 58.3 from a previously reported 56.0 in November.
The rise in sentiment offered hope for a pick-up in consumer spending after a tepid performance in November.
Labor market conditions have improved in recent months, with the unemployment rate falling to a 2-1/2 year low in November and applications for first time jobless benefits at the lowest since April 2008.
The survey’s present situation index rose to 46.7 this month — the highest since September 2008 — from 38.3 in November. The expectations index surged to 76.4 from 66.4 in November.
“Consumers are more optimistic that business conditions, employment prospects and their financial situations will get better,” the Conference Board said in a statement.
“While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it is too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes.”
+%3Cp%3EBank+of+America+Corp.+Chief+Executive+Officer+Brian+T.+Moynihan+said+U.S.+economic+growth+will+be+slow+next+year+and+that+companies+aren%92t+using+stockpiles+of+cash+to+build+their+businesses.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%932012+will+be+another+year+that%92s+a+grind+in+the+economy%2C%94+Moynihan%2C+52%2C+said+today+at+an+economic+outlook+conference+held+in+Charlotte%2C+North+Carolina%2C+where+the+company+is+based.+%93Never+have+middle-market+and+large+companies+been+as+profitable%2C+had+as+much+cash+on+their+%3Ca+topic_url%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Ftopics.bloomberg.com%2Fs%26amp%3Bp-500-index%2F%22+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fapps%2Fquote%3Fticker%3DSPX%3AIND%22+density%3D%22full%22+title%3D%22Get+Quote%22+ticker%3D%22SPX%3AIND%22+class%3D%22web_ticker%22%3Ebalance+sheet+%28SPX%29%2C+had+as+much+availability+on+their+lines%2C+but+they+haven%92t+done+anything+with+the+money.+They+don%92t+feel+the+certainty+of+opportunity+to+make+big+investments.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EBank+of+America%2C+the+second-biggest+U.S.+lender+by+deposits%2C+is+cutting+costs+amid+stagnant+revenue.+The+company+has+been+hurt+by+weak+economic+growth+and+concern+that+Europe%92s+debt+crisis+will+spread+through+the+world%92s+financial+system.+Shares+of+the+firm+dropped+more+than+60+percent+this+year+and+fell+below+%245+today+for+the+first+time+since+March+2009.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+U.S.+economy+may+expand+about+2.1+percent+next+year%2C+Moynihan+said.+Consumer+spending+was+%93modestly+encouraging%94+at+about+5+percent+higher+this+month+than+the+year-earlier+period%2C+he+said.+Employment+won%92t+improve+%93a+lot%94+in+2012%2C+he+said.+%3C%2Fp%3E+Slower+Growth++%3Cp%3EMoynihan%92s+comments+follow+an+economic+report+last+week+from+Bank+of+America+researchers+that+projected+that+the+U.S.+economy+will+slow+to+1+percent+growth+by+the+fourth+quarter+of+2012+as+Europe+enters+recession.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+risk+from+a+European+sovereign+default+%93is+not+what+people+think%2C%94+Moynihan+said.+Bank+of+America+had+about+%2414.6+billion+at+risk+in+Greece%2C+Ireland%2C+Italy%2C+Portugal+and+Spain+as+of+Sept.+30%2C+compared+with+about+%2416.7+billion+at+the+end+of+the+second+quarter.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%93It%92s+not+the+bank+%3Ca+topic_url%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Ftopics+%3Ca+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fus-paydayloans.com%22%3Epaydayloan%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%21–+.+–%3E.bloomberg.com%2Fbank-of-america-corp%2F%22+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fapps%2Fquote%3Fticker%3DBAC%3AUS%22+density%3D%22sparse%22+title%3D%22Get+Quote%22+ticker%3D%22BAC%3AUS%22+class%3D%22web_ticker%22%3Ebalance+sheets+%28BAC%29+that%92s+really+under+attack+here+for+us+or+our+competitors%2C%94+Moynihan+said.+%93The+risk+is+that+an+economy+which+in+the+aggregate+is+as+big+as+the+U.S.+having+a+recessionary+environment+obviously+pulls+down+worldwide+growth.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ERecord+low+yields+for+U.S.+Treasuries+amid+rising+borrowing+costs+for+some+European+nations%2C+a+so-called+flight+to+quality%2C+is+another+sign+that+%93no+one+is+taking+risk%2C%94+Moynihan+said.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThere+was+%93no+question%94+that+new+international+rules+for+bank+capital+have+lowered+the+lender%92s+leverage%2C+Moynihan+said.+An+increase+of+1+percent+in+capital+requirements+cuts+the+ability+to+lend+by+about+10+percent%2C+he+said.+%3C%2Fp%3E+Achieving+Balance++%3Cp%3E%93The+question+is%2C+did+we+get+the+balance+right%2C%94+Moynihan+said%2C+%93Or+did+we+swing+the+pendulum+too+far+where+we%92ve+underleveraged+financial+services+to+have+an+effect+on+growth%3F%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EMoynihan+spoke+as+part+of+a+panel+that+included+Jeffrey+Lacker%2C+president+of+the+Federal+Reserve+Bank+of+Richmond%2C+who+said+impediments+to+economic+growth+will+be+%93deeper+and+more+persistent+than+we+thought+a+year+ago.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EObstacles+Lacker+cited+include+the+oversupply+of+housing%2C+a+mismatch+of+skills+between+unemployed+people+and+new+jobs%2C+changes+in+tax+policy+and+regulations+and+the+%93murky+federal+budget+outlook.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EAnother+panelist%2C+Duke+Energy+Corp.+CEO+Jim+Rogers%2C+drew+laughter+by+referencing+Bank+of+America%92s+failed+attempt+to+charge+some+customers+%245+per+month+to+use+their+debit+cards.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%93Talking+about+the+economy+is+so+depressing%2C%94+Rogers+said.+%93I+was+about+to+pull+some+data+from+Bank+of+America%2C+but+they+wanted+to+charge+me+5+bucks.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E++%3Cp%3E%3Ca+href%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2011-12-19%2Fbofa-s-moynihan-predicts-u-s-economy-will-expand-slowly-again-next-year.html%27+rel%3D%27nofollow%27%3ESource%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E+
World stocks began the week with a jolt Monday as the death of North Korea’s absolute ruler, Kim Jong Il, added to the uncertainties clouding the outlook for financial markets.
South Korea’s Kospi index dived nearly 5 percent but later recouped some losses to close 3.4 percent lower at 1,776.93. The Korean won also fell, losing 1.6 percent against the U.S. dollar, a traditional haven in times of uncertainty. The Japanese yen, euro and other regional currencies also weakened against the dollar.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 1.3 percent to 8,296.12. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 1.2 percent to 18,070.21 and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from earlier losses to finish down 0.3 percent at 2,218.24.
Kim Jong Il’s death, announced Monday by North Korean state television, raises the spectre of more instability on the divided Korean peninsula as the reclusive regime undergoes a leadership succession.
Those worries are most acute in South Korea and Japan, which have often been the targets of North Korea’s mercurial military and diplomatic actions.
“We’re seeing deeper negative sentiment in some markets,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, strategist at Credit Agricole CIB, in Hong Kong. “Basically this is because risk aversion on the geopolitical front has increased given that there’s a transition of power in a relatively unstable country. So we’re seeing an impact on equities, currencies.”
In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.5 percent to 5,363.11 and Germany’s DAX slipped 0.3 percent to 5,687.62. France’s CAC-40 fell 0.3 percent to 2,961.74. Wall Street was set to open lower with Dow futures off 0.1 percent at 11,770. Broader S&P 500 futures shed 0.1 percent to 1,210.20.
South Korea’s military and police went on alert and President Lee Myung-bak, convened a national security council meeting. Japanese leaders said they were watching markets closely and in contact with the U.S., Kyodo News Agency reported.
“We need to prepare for any contingencies,” Kyodo quoted Jun Azumi, the Japanese finance minister, as saying.
Kim was ailing after suffering what is thought to have been a stroke in 2008 and died at age 69 on Saturday.
North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Monday identified his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, as the “great successor” to the man known officially as the “Dear Leader.”
But even with the younger Kim designated as his father’s successor, and already filling high-ranking posts, some experts fear a behind-the-scenes power struggle or nuclear instability fast cash now.
Fitch Ratings, which spooked markets across the globe with a warning Friday it may downgrade ratings of a half-dozen European countries, said it did not view Kim’s death “as a trigger for negative action on South Korea’s sovereign ratings in itself.”
“For now, it’s much too early to say risks have materially increased, but clearly we will keep the situation under close review,” said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Fitch’s Asia-Pacific sovereigns.
Markets in Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia also sank on Monday.
“Particularly with the bearish market sentiment now, any negative news will make the market much more gloomy,” said Kwong Man Bun, chief operating officer at KGI Securities in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong benchmark dipped 100 points after North Korea’s announcement which “reflects concern over potential political instability,” he said.
Still, barring unexpected developments in Pyongyang the impact of Kim’s death on markets is likely to be passing, analysts said.
“In the short term there will be some psychological uncertainty but I think things will go back to the fundamentals,” said Steven Leung, director of institutional sales at UOB-Kay Hian Ltd. in Hong Kong.
Kim’s death overshadowed what already was a gloomy start to the week after Fitch warned it may downgrade the credit ratings of heavyweights Italy and Spain, as well as Belgium, Cyprus, Ireland and Slovenia.
Coming just a week after EU leaders struck a deal they thought would contain the continent’s debt crisis, that and other negative news dashed hopes of an end to the turmoil endangering the euro _ the currency used by 17 European nations _ and threatening the entire global economy.
“Everyone is waiting to see what comes from the next conference of European nations. Hopefully something good,” said Jackson Wong of Tanrich Securities, in Hong Kong.
Benchmark oil for January delivery was down 21 cents at $93.32 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Workers used white tarps Friday to cover the exterior signs of Shula’s 347 Grill, which abruptly closed last week at the Roberts Tower, the stylish but empty condo building in downtown St. Louis.
Taped to the front door was a sign that read, “We are closed to make exciting changes!”
How the street-level space will change could not be immediately determined, but Shula’s will not return. Robert Zarco, the lawyer for Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Shula Steak Houses, said Friday that the company pulled its St. Louis franchise, which he said was held by a firm controlled by businessmen brothers Mike and Steve Roberts.
Zarco said Shula’s main concern in St. Louis was that employees of the local restaurant were not getting paid.
“The tension was between the employees and the franchisee arising from the employees’ claiming they were not paid their wages and salaries,” he said. “In our view it impairs the brand and corporate good will of our company when employees are not paid.”
Efforts to reach Roberts company officials were unsuccessful.
Zarco said the Roberts company did not fight the loss of its Shula 347 Grill franchise. The restaurant, on the ground floor of the Roberts Tower, opened last spring.
About 30 Shula restaurants in a chain begun by retired Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula operate in more than a dozen states.
The sleek glass-and-concrete Roberts Tower, at 411 North 8th Street, is a Roberts development that has no residents two years past what had been its expected opening.
The 25-story tower adjoins the Roberts Mayfair Hotel, where some hourly workers have said they sometimes do not get paid on time.
Pending against another Roberts entity, Roberts Hospitality Services II, are liens for unpaid state sales and use taxes. The largest is for nearly $1.3 million. Nearly all of that amount is for what the lien document describes as “addition to tax” to the $25,412 in taxes owed for June 2011.
Ted Farnen, spokesman for the Missouri Department of Revenue, said Friday that the lien would be ’significantly” altered but would not say whether the amount would be revised up or down.
Also owed by Roberts Hospitality Services are payments to vendors. Among them is a $19,294 judgment obtained by Middendorf Meat Co. Its lawyer, Vincent D. Vogler, said Middendorf sued to collect for food sold to the Mayfair and what had been the Roberts’ Indigo Hotel on Lindell Boulevard. The Indigo is now operated as a Comfort Inn.
In October, yet another Roberts company
The job market is healthier than at any time since the end of the Great Recession.
The number of people filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest since May 2008, a sign that the waves of corporate layoffs that have defined the past few years are all but over.
“This is unexpectedly great news,” said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics.
It will take an additional step _ robust hiring, not just the end of layoffs _ to bring the 8.6 percent unemployment rate down significantly. Experts say that won’t happen until businesses are more confident about customer demand. And the European debt crisis could still cause damage here.
But the report on unemployment claims Thursday was the latest to suggest that the economy, two and a half slow years after the official end of the recession, may finally be picking up momentum.
The nation added 100,000 or more jobs every month from July through November, the first such streak since 2006. And the economy, which was barely growing when the year started, has picked up speed each quarter.
More small businesses plan to hire than at any time in three years, a trade group said this week. And another private-sector survey found more companies are planning to add workers than at any time since 2008.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits came in at 366,000, down from 385,000 the week before. Applications are nearing their pre-recession level of about 325,000.
The last time claims were so low, the nation was six months into the recession but didn’t know it yet. The unemployment rate was 5.4 percent _ a level almost hard to imagine these days. Unemployment has been above 8 percent for almost three years.
That spring of 2008, Bear Stearns, an investment house that predated the Depression, had been hobbled by its investment in subprime mortgages and was sold near collapse to JPMorgan Chase for a paltry $10 a share.
The worst was yet to come. Lehman Brothers collapsed four months later, credit froze, investors panicked and the stock market plunged. Businesses began slashing millions of jobs. Unemployment claims peaked at 659,000 in March 2009.
Unemployment claims are a measure of the pace of layoffs, and they have declined steadily for three months. Another government report this week showed that layoffs are lower than they were in most months before the recession.
But that’s just part of the picture. Business aren’t hiring with gusto. Unemployment fell 0.4 percentage points last month, but about half the decline was because people gave up looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed payday loan lenders.
“One of the features of this recovery is that hiring is exceptionally weak,” said Jeremy Lawson, senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas.
And that doesn’t necessarily show up in unemployment claims. Many employers cut staffs to the bone during the recession. If they worry that business will grow weakly next year, they may hold off on layoffs _ but not hire, either.
“The hiring numbers will continue to look good but not great,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.
Besides waiting for demand to come back, companies have other things to worry about. A recession in Europe would hurt U.S. exports, and a collapse in European banks because of the debt crisis there would probably cause a worldwide panic.
Another concern: The economy has been here before.
In February, unemployment claims fell to 375,000. Companies added about 200,000 jobs a month for three months. But then oil prices spiked and Europe’s debt problem got worse. Employers added just 53,000 jobs in May.
The decline in unemployment claims comes as Congress wrangles over whether to extend long-term unemployment benefits, which are set to expire at the end of this year.
Lawmakers differ over how long benefits should last. The House passed a Republican bill Tuesday that would renew emergency aid but reduce the maximum duration to 79 weeks from 99.
Democrats want to keep the full 99 weeks. The measure is part of broader legislation in the Democratic-led Senate that would also extend a cut in the Social Security tax and put $1,000 to $2,000 in most Americans’ pockets next year.
In other economic news Thursday:
_ The prices companies pay for factory and farm goods rose 0.3 percent last month. The figure was pushed up by higher food and pharmaceutical prices. But energy prices barely rose, keeping inflation in check. In the year ending in November, wholesale prices increased 5.7 percent, the Labor Department said. It’s the smallest increase since March.
_ A mixed picture emerged for manufacturing. Factory output fell in November for the first time in seven months, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturers made fewer cars, electronics and appliances. But some economists noted that auto sales rose in November, suggesting that production will rebound. And the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York said manufacturing expanded in their regions. Manufacturing has been a key source of economic growth this year.
In his annual report tabled last week, Auditor General Jim McCarter accused the Ontario government of mismanaging the prices of auto insurance, electricity and liquor.
If his findings had been available for scrutiny before the Oct. 6 election, Ontario voters might have given even fewer seats to the Liberal party, which ended up with a one-seat minority.
I wish the Opposition parties were as comprehensive in their criticism as McCarter was. They had an opportunity to attack the government on pocketbook issues and came up short.
Here are some numbers that tell the story from a mammoth 462-page report, available online at www.auditor.on.ca.
Auto insurance: The Financial Services Commission of Ontario (FSCO) approves rate filings by insurers and protects consumers from being charged an incorrect rate.
In a five-year period, FSCO reviewed 22 complaints about incorrect rates — and only five of them were initiated by the public. (The rest were self-reported by insurers.)
“Such errors can have a significant impact on consumers — we noted examples of overbilling that totalled between $1 million to $11 million,” the auditor’s report says.
“However, FSCO did not have any procedures for periodically checking that insurers were charging the approved rates.”
The agency said it planned to verify that insurers were charging only authorized rates. But why didn’t it do so earlier? It’s been approving insurance rates for several decades.
Electricity: The Ontario Energy Board has a responsibility to educate consumers on how to understand their complex electricity bills.
They need to understand the risks and potential benefits of signing retail fixed-price contracts. They need to know about the time-of-use system and how they can save by adjusting power usage.
But in a 2010 focus group, many people said they couldn’t figure out the electricity charges on their bills and weren’t aware of the board’s role in protecting them.
Meanwhile, the board received 17,000 complaints in five years. Most were about electricity retailers misrepresenting themselves, switching supply without a contract, even forging signatures on contracts.
Since it licenses retailers, the board is expected to play a proactive role in protecting consumers from unfair business practices.
“Despite the high number of public complaints, we noted little enforcement action against retailers with repeated offences. Since July 2003, the board has issued only four enforcement orders in 2009 and just one in 2010,” the report said.
Right on, Jim McCarter. Why has so little been done to discipline the brazen door-to-door sellers who break all the rules? This has gone on for a decade.
Liquor: The Liquor Control Board of Ontario can set retail prices for the products it sells. In the latest fiscal year, it had sales of $4.6 billion and net income of $1.56 billion (virtually all the profit goes to the province).
Most large retailers use their buying power to negotiate with suppliers to drive down costs. But the LCBO, one of the world’s largest purchasers of beverage alcohol, doesn’t do so.
It has no incentive to negotiate lower wholesale costs — since that would result in lower prices and, in turn, lower profits for the province.
“The LCBO should assess the feasibility of negotiating as low a price as possible with its suppliers,” McCarter said after releasing the report.
“With retail prices still kept at desired levels, this could result in higher profits for the province while still encouraging responsible consumption.”
Let’s be grateful that the auditor is doing his job and telling the truth. Ontario consumers pay too much for basic services and get too little from government agencies that are supposed to protect their interests.
Let’s hope his efforts continue to bear fruit in the years to come.
Ellen Roseman writes about personal finance and consumer issues. You can reach her at eroseman@thestar.ca.
National home sales figures will be lowered dating back to 2007 after the private trade group that collects them said the numbers were too high.
The National Association of Realtors said Monday it will release the downward revisions for previously occupied homes on Dec. 21.
Among the reasons for the inflated figures, the Realtors group says: changes in the way the Census Bureau collects data, population shifts and some sales being counted twice. Last year’s total sales figure of 4.91 million was the worst in 13 years.
The Realtors consulted with several government and private housing market experts, including the Federal Reserve, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Home Builders, mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and CoreLogic, the California-based data firm that first raised doubts about the annual numbers earlier this year.
CoreLogic estimated that the Realtors group overstated sales in 2010 by at least 15 percent.
The changing numbers could impact how economists view data from the trade group. It could also affect companies who use the figures for hiring and expansion plans.
Investors added about $1 billion to U.S. municipal bond mutual funds in the week that ended Dec. 7, the most since March 2010, as 10-year benchmark yields fell to the lowest since September.
The funds have attracted about $3 billion since mid-October, according to Lipper US Fund Flows data. Yields on top-rated 10-year municipals fell to 2.005 Thursday, from a two-month high of about 2.58 percent on Oct. 13, according to Bloomberg Valuation data. Thursday’s benchmark tax-free yield was just above the 2.003 percent interest rate on Sept. 23, the lowest since the index began in January 2009.
Investors are adding cash to municipal funds to tap into the rally in the $3.7 trillion market and to boost assets they deem relatively safe before month-end, said Matt Fabian, managing director of Concord, Mass.-based Municipal Market Advisors, in a telephone interview.
“It’s probably partly the rally and partly just allocations into year-end, getting portfolios ready for year-end to show a larger allocation of fixed income,” Fabian said.
Net additions in the past couple of months are a reversal from earlier in the year. Investors pulled more than $30 billion out of the funds from November 2010 to June as lingering strains from the recession fueled speculation that municipal defaults would jump.
In contrast with the decline in 10-year yields, interest rates on top-rated tax-exempts maturing in 30 years increased in the past two months to 3.85 percent Thursday, according to Bloomberg data. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
The yield on the longer-maturity index was 185 basis points above that on the 10-year gauge yesterday, the widest gap since at least January 2001, when the Bloomberg Valuation data began.
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