Axel Weber’s candidacy for the European Central Bank presidency got a boost after two smaller countries laid claim to an ECB Executive Board post, saving the top job for one of the European Union’s powers.
Belgium and Slovakia nominated candidates for an ECB seat becoming vacant in May, clearing an obstacle to a bid by the German banker for the top job when Jean-Claude Trichet’s term ends in October.
“I still fail to see the credible candidate that would oppose Weber, or would be an alternative to Weber,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, a former EU and French government economic adviser who runs the Bruegel research institute in Brussels.
Already unfolding behind the scenes, the campaign for ECB president runs in parallel with efforts to contain the debt crisis that last year forced EU-led emergency lending of 178 billion euros ($238 billion) for Greece and Ireland.
The race is to succeed France’s Trichet in the second-most important financial job in the world after the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman. The decision may turn on domestic political demands facing leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, efforts to balance regions and the influence of “big” and “small” states, and a desire for consensus.
The Bundesbank chief would also confront the curse of the frontrunner in becoming the first German to win a top EU post since Walter Hallstein, who served as the first European Commission president from 1958 to 1967.
Rompuy Beats Blair
EU history is littered with favorites who ultimately failed to get the top job, from failed bids to run the European Commission by Belgium’s Jean-Luc Dehaene in 1994 and Guy Verhofstadt in 2004 to Tony Blair’s campaign to be the first EU president in 2009. Weber himself drew fire from Trichet after he criticized the ECB’s decision to buy government bonds last year, a tactic that blunted the debt crisis’s impact. Weber’s view was “not the position of Governing Council,” he said in October.
Thirteen of the 17 politicians who will name the next ECB chief were in on the decision to snub the former U.K. premier in favor of Herman Van Rompuy, a haiku-writing former Belgian leader with a low profile even in his home country.
In Europe’s informal division between “small” and “large” countries, the smaller ones staked their claim to keeping the ECB board position that Austria’s Gertrude Tumpel- Gugerell, 58, will leave on May 31.
Belgium on Jan. 17 nominated central bank official Peter Praet, who turns 62 tomorrow, a past loser in ECB personnel sweepstakes. Slovakia, one of three eastern European countries using the euro, put forward Elena Kohutikova, 57, a former central bank deputy governor.
Gender Politics
Gender politics plays a role. Praet’s appointment would make the Frankfurt-based central bank an all-male club.
“We need the most competent candidate to fill the vacancy,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said after yesterday’s EU meeting in Brussels. “If the competencies are equal, then my choice is for the woman.”
Whoever wins, the appointment will keep two of the six board seats rotating among smaller countries, while the four biggest — Germany, France, Italy and Spain — claim permanent representation.
Under that logic, a Belgian victory might dim the chances that Luxembourg Central Bank Governor Yves Mersch, 61, will emerge as a compromise candidate for the top post. Luxembourg was part of Belgium in the 19th century and the two countries are often lumped together in EU personnel decisions.
The Belgian-Slovak jockeying will act as a prelude to the replacement of Trichet, whose eight-year term ends Oct. 31.
German Antidote
The campaign come as inflation accelerates a two-year high of 2.2 percent in December, shifting the ECB’s focus from the debt crisis back to its original, German-inspired mission of maintaining price stability. The ECB aims to keep inflation below 2 percent.
Weber, 53, could be the antidote to waning German enthusiasm for the euro as consumer prices rise and the bill for aiding debt-hit states threatens to mount, said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group NV in Brussels.
“We could see fading euro support from the German public if inflation remains high,” said Brzeski, a German who once worked in the European Commission’s economics department. Weber’s appointment would “boost German confidence in the central bank, to have this guardian of price stability back.”
Here, EU politics and the voting math kick in. No deadline is set for a decision, the first time Europe has named a new top central banker since the ECB’s first two presidents were simultaneously selected at a dramatic summit in May 1998, eight months before the euro came into being.
Veto Club
At the time, Wim Duisenberg of the Netherlands, backed by Germany, faced a veto threat from France. A political deal was struck to give him the job, as long as he stepped down midway through his eight-year term to make way for Trichet, who will have served a complete mandate.
The EU has since dropped the policy of allowing lone countries to block high-level appointments. The voting formula now requires anywhere from two to six of the euro region’s 17 countries to band together to wield a veto, with bigger countries holding more sway.
Weber, a self-confessed non-diplomat, broke from the European consensus by opposing the ECB’s bond purchases that have helped at least three of the countries that will elect Trichet’s successor — Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
Merkel Lobby
While Bild newspaper reported Jan. 15 that Merkel has begun to lobby for Weber, she isn’t doing so publicly, partly because she still has to persuade French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy opposes a Weber candidacy, France’s La Tribune newspaper reported in October, without citing sources. He has not commented publicly on the matter.
Germany wants the discussions out of the public eye so that Trichet, the incumbent, “does not get weakened prematurely by such a debate,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday in Brussels.
France would need one other “large” country — Italy or Spain — to marshal enough votes for a veto. Even if Sarkozy backs Weber, Italy and Spain together could reject him. The only declared candidate for the top post is Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi.
Draghi “is not only technically prepared but he’s also a wise man,” former Italian Prime Minister and European Commission President Romano Prodi, who counts the central banker as a friend, said in a Jan. 17 Bloomberg Television interview.
The knock on Draghi is that, with the ECB’s vice presidency held by Vitor Constancio of Portugal, his selection would put two southern Europeans in charge of the bank. A third, Jose Barroso of Portugal, runs the EU commission. Draghi’s experience at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. might not also sit well with leaders who blame investment banks for the economic crisis.
“Politics will be the major thing,” said Paul de Grauwe, an economics professor at the Catholic University of Leuven and two-time unsuccessful Belgian candidate for an ECB post. “It’s certainly not going to be very transparent. These are things that are decided in smoke-filled rooms.”
Source