Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s first showdown with the opposition- controlled congress may be over inflation data.
The ruling coalition plans to propose changes to the National Statistics Institute two years after Fernandez’s predecessor, her husband Nestor Kirchner, sparked data-rigging allegations from statisticians by putting a political appointee in charge of inflation figures.
Fernandez is seeking to shore up support after her coalition, weakened by the inflation-underreporting speculation and an economic slump, lost its congressional majority in June 28 elections, said Carlos Fara, director of pollster Carlos Fara & Asociados in Buenos Aires. Fernandez will likely pursue changes that fall short of the overhaul that the opposition demands, including making the institute independent of the executive branch, Fara said.
The government will push for a reform that will “create the sensation of change but that will have nothing to do with the changes that the society has been asking for,” said Fara, whose company has tracked Argentine politics since 1991.
Fernandez’s post-election cabinet reshuffle, in which she picked officials from within her government to take over key posts such as economy minister, indicates she doesn’t plan a “large reform,” said Rafael de la Fuente, a senior Latin America economist at BNP Paribas in New York. He said the government may try to pass a reform before the new legislators take office in December.
San Luis Province
Annual inflation in South America’s second-largest economy slowed to 5.5 percent in May, the lowest rate in four years, according to the institute, known as Indec. Alejandro Cuadrado, an economist at Banc of America Corp. in New York, estimates the actual rate is about triple that at 15 percent. Indec is scheduled to release June figures tomorrow.
The national inflation rate has decoupled with the rate in the western province of San Luis. Consumer prices rose 14.4 percent in San Luis in the 12 months through May, according to the province’s data. In December 2006, several weeks before Kirchner handpicked a new consumer price chief at Indec, inflation in San Luis was below the national rate — 8 percent compared with 9.8 percent.
“Indec has to be normalized to regain credibility,” Senator Elena Corregido, a member of the ruling coalition, said in a telephone interview.
CPI-Linked Bonds
Fixing the data may be expensive.
The government’s peso-denominated bonds linked to inflation totaled $53 billion in December, meaning each additional percentage point of inflation would swell the debt’s principal by about $530 million easy payday loans. The inflation-linked debt accounted for almost 40 percent of the government’s overall debt of $146 billion, according to the Finance Secretariat.
The yield on the government’s inflation-linked bonds due in 2033 surged to 14.86 percent on July 10 from 5.3 percent in February 2007, the month Indec statisticians began complaining that Kirchner’s appointee had them eliminate some details from the index.
“Investors pushed these bonds aside after the problems with Indec emerged,” said Javier Salvucci, a fixed-income analyst at Silver Cloud Advisors in Buenos Aires.
Fernandez, like her husband, has maintained since taking office in December 2007 that the figures are reliable. Alfredo Scoccimarro, a spokesman at the Presidential Palace, said he has no information on planned changes to Indec.
‘Deep Changes’
Fernandez’s congressional backers will initiate debate on the matter in coming weeks, said a spokesman for the coalition’s lower house bloc, who asked not to be identified in accordance with the party’s policies. He declined to say what the proposed changes may look like.
Corregido, the ruling coalition senator, said she wants reforms that ensure Indec — which also reports gross domestic product, unemployment and trade figures — awards promotions based on merit and skill tests.
That may not be enough for opposition lawmakers such as Adrian Perez, who heads the Civic Coalition party in the lower house. He says he wants to make the institute autonomous from the government so the president can’t handpick officials.
“It’s good that the government finally agrees to discuss this issue,” Perez said in a telephone interview. “But we want deep changes, not just cosmetic ones.”
Markets Last Week
Last week, the yield on Argentina’s benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 rose seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 15.77 percent, according to Bloomberg data. The bond’s price slid 0.25 cents to 51.5 cents on the dollar.
The Buenos Aires benchmark Merval stock index fell 6.4 percent to 1,477.84. The local listing of Brazil’s state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (APBR AF) fell 9.8 percent, while energy holding company Pampa Energia SA (PAMP AF) dropped 9.4 percent.
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